apps2 · bias

every cross-asset signal + the dealer-gamma regime → one equity directional read hubsectorsdecoupsignalmoverslandscapegammabias loading…
Fused equity bias — nowThe headline read: composite bias (−1 risk-off → +1 risk-on) and the implied probability equities rise next. The strip below the bar = SPY dealer-γ regime over the last recorded days (red short-γ = dealers amplify moves; blue long-γ = pin; shade = |GEX| percentile) — the live γ badge is that strip's right-edge cell.
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dealer-γ regime history loading…
Fused bias over time vs S&P 500Does the composite turn before price? Black = bias; orange = P(up) (0–100% mapped on the same midline: 50% sits on the zero line); faint blue = S&P (its own scale); brown = 0DTE put/call reference (own right scale, toggle with the P/C ref chip in the toolbar — >1 puts/fear, <1 calls/greed; daily prints step-aligned by day). The thin strip beneath = driver AGREEMENT per bar (pale = consensus, deep blue = drivers split — when it's split, trust the composite less).
Per-driver lead / lag vs S&P 500 — who moves firstDoes each driver move BEFORE, WITH, or AFTER the S&P 500? Each mini-chart shifts that driver's returns against the S&P's by −N…0…+N bars (A2.leadLag over the loaded window) and plots the correlation at every shift. A bar to the RIGHT of centre (+lag) = the driver LEADS the S&P (moves first); LEFT (−lag) = it lags; the tallest bar (dashed pin) = the strongest relationship. Blue = they move together, red = opposite (e.g. VIX vs stocks); grey = inside the ±2/√n noise band (no reliable lead/lag). This is a DESCRIPTIVE concurrent relationship over the loaded Range/Interval — PER-DRIVER, never the fused composite — and NOT a forward-return / hit-rate forecast (that read is gated).
computing per-driver lead-lag…
Bar right of centre (+lag)this driver's move today looks like the S&P's move N bars LATER — the driver moves FIRST (leads).
Bar left of centre (−lag)the S&P moves first and this driver follows N bars later (lags).
Blue vs red barsblue = positive correlation (move together); red = negative (move opposite — e.g. VIX / real yields vs stocks).
Dashed noise band±2/√n. Bars INSIDE it are statistically indistinguishable from zero — drawn grey; ignore them.
n = honest depththe burned caption names the pair, the best lag, its r, and the number of overlapping bars behind it — thin n = trust it less.
Descriptive, not predictivethe concurrent relationship over the loaded window — NOT a forward-return or edge/hit-rate read (§7-gated). The fused COMP/P(up) headline carries no pctl chip pending sign-off.
0DTE put/call ratio over time — extra voterQQQ·TSLA·NVDA 0DTE options. P/C>1 = MORE PUTS (fear/hedging); P/C<1 = MORE CALLS (greed/leverage/retail-frenzy). Contrarian: extreme call-euphoria (very low P/C) = risk-OFF vote; extreme put-fear (very high P/C) = risk-ON vote. Line over time, not a scalar — candles/resolution N/A (a ratio series). Volume P/C = retail-frenzy gauge.
Form / series:
Solid blackthe selected volume P/C.
Dashed grey = P/C 1.0the P/C = 1.0 balance line (above it puts dominate, below calls dominate).
Faint blueS&P 500 (own scale) for divergence.
Dashed purple = OI P/Cstanding positioning, Σput_oi/Σcall_oi from banked retail rows — volume P/C (today's flow / retail-frenzy) diverging from OI P/C (standing distribution) is the frenzy-vs-distribution tell near tops.
OI history rampingOI series is ramping — live 5-min rows only for now; the Databento daily spine (OI to 2013) awaits the paid backfill.
Percentile-ranked voteVote ranks P/C vs its own percentile over the loaded window (not the raw level) — see the "0DTE P/C" row in Contributors.
ContributorsWho's voting which way and how hard — sorted by pull (weight × vote). Vote/Pull cell shading and the heatmap below share ONE red↔blue scale: red = risk-off, blue = risk-on — so cells are comparable down the column, across rows, and through time.
apps2/fuseeach driver votes risk-on/off for equities from its recent momentum (sign × tanh).
Composite → P(up)composite = weighted mean → P(up) via logistic.
Dealer-gamma contextDealer-gamma regime (from surface, SPY) adds context.
Contrarian 0DTE P/C voterA contrarian 0DTE put/call voter (ranked vs its own percentile) leans risk-off on call-euphoria, risk-on on put-fear.
Data · prices & macro../decoup/data.php (Yahoo+FRED)
Data · dealer γ now../gamma/opt.php (Massive)
Data · dealer-γ regime strip../gamma/history_opt.php (recorded dealer-γ regime strip)
Data · 0DTE vol P/C history../fundamentals/zerodte5y.php (0DTE volume P/C history)
Data · live OI/vol P/C../retail/retail.php (live OI/vol P/C)
Data · OI P/C history../retail/history_retail.php (OI P/C history — ramping)